气候减缓建模顾问

The contribution of the climate mitigation modelling consultant will result in consistent and well-documented technical modelling support to the relevant PAF and NDC Act & Invest projects implemented by UNEP, in particular the

LT-LEDS processes and sectoral mitigation modelling in energy, transport and other priority sectors.

By the end of the mission, the following will be delivered: o a modelling workplan covering the supported projects, including an inventory of models, data sources, key assumptions, scenario definitions and a quality-assurance approach;

o sectoral mitigation modelling outputs for energy, transport and other priority sectors, including emission projections, mitigation potential, indicative costs and sensitivity analyses;

o technical notes, modelling guidance and training materials supporting national counterparts and project teams engaged under the supported projects;

o technical review notes on the proposals and project pipelines of key partner countries supported by UNEP, documenting findings and recommendations on their technical robustness.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the leading global environmental authority that sets the international environmental agenda, promotes the coherent implementation of the environmental dimension of sustainable development within the United Nations system and serves as an authoritative advocate for the global environment.

UNEP and currently funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and the NDC Partnership’s Partnership Action Fund (PAF) multi-donor trust fund.

It is designed to help countries raise their climate ambition and translate their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) submitted in 2025 into actionable, investable plans.

Structured around three interconnected workstream, fostering G20+ ambition and action, piloting policy and planning alignment, and providing deep-dive support to enhance NDC investability, the initiative aims to bridge the gap between climate commitments and tangible implementation.

By aligning national strategies, strengthening enabling environments, and working collaboratively with key partners, including the NDC Partnership, GIZ, UNDP’s Climate Promise, UNFCCC, multilateral development banks (MDBs), development finance institutions (DFIs), and private sector actors, NDC Act & Invest seeks to make the next generation of NDCs both more ambitious and more achievable, accelerating progress toward the 1.5°C goal and enhancing global resilience.

The NDC Act & Invest team, based within the Mitigation Branch in Paris, is responsible for the global management and overall coordination of the project across partner countries, in line with UNEP’s delivery model.

UNEP and the NDC Partnership, coordinating UNEP’s responses to country support requests shared through the Partnership, identifying and applying for additional funding where appropriate, and consolidating implementation and progress reporting.

In addition, the team maintains close coordination with related projects under the IKI Programme to ensure coherence and synergies across initiatives.

Several projects implemented under PAF and NDC Act & Invest portfolios involve a substantial quantitative modelling and technical components.

These include the development of Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), which require economy-wide and sectoral emission projections to 2050, the definition of reference and mitigation scenarios and the assessment of mitigation potential and costs, as well as technical analysis of mitigation options in energy, transport and other key emitting sectors in support of NDC implementation and investment planning in partner countries, as well as the review of the technical aspects of proposals and project pipelines developed with key partner countries with NDC Act and Invest support.

Robust, transparent and consistent modelling is essential to ensure that long-term strategies and NDC implementation plans are technically credible, aligned with national GHG inventories and policy targets.

UNEP therefore seeks to engage a consultant to provide technical modelling support to these projects under PAF and NDC Act & Invest.

The consultant will contribute hands-on modelling work and technical review across the supported projects, help ensure methodological consistency between country processes, contribute technical inputs to the guidance provided by

UNEP in responding to additional modelling requests from partner countries channelled through PAF and NDC Act & Invest.

Subject to the availability of additional PAF resources, this support may be extended beyond the initial contract period.

The climate mitigation modelling consultant will: o Provide technical modelling support to the PAF and NDC Act & Invest projects implemented by UNEP, in particular the Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) processes partner countries, including the development of reference and mitigation scenarios and long-term emission pathways to 2050;

o Develop and review sectoral mitigation modelling in energy, transport and other key emitting sectors, including emission projections, mitigation potential, indicative costs and sensitivity analyses;

o Support methodological consistency across country modelling exercises, alignment with national GHG inventories, NDC targets and

UNEP and national counterparts on data, assumptions, tools, scenario design and the treatment of uncertainty;

o Support the translation of modelling results into policy-relevant outputs, including sectoral targets, costed mitigation measures and investment needs that feed into LT-LEDS, NDC implementation plans and NDC investment planning;

UNEP support, including project pipelines, project concept notes and funding proposals, and provide structured feedback on baselines, emission reduction estimates, cost assumptions and methodologies;

o Liaise, under the guidance of UNEP, with national modelling teams, consultants and partner institutions to avoid duplication and build on existing tools and datasets;

o Document modelling approaches, assumptions and results, and prepare technical notes, guidance and training materials, and inputs for national counterparts, partners and donor reporting under PAF and NDC Act & Invest.

o Strong analytical ability and attention to data quality, consistency and transparency of assumptions;

o Strong technical writing skills, with the ability to document methods, assumptions and results clearly;

o Ability to review modelling work produced by others and provide constructive technical feedback;

o Ability to communicate modelling results clearly to policymakers and non-specialists.

3. Workplan 3.1 Objectives, expected results and performance indicators The climate mitigation modelling consultant will be responsible for providing technical modelling support and review across the relevant PAF and NDC Act & Invest projects implemented by UNEP, with a particular focus on the

LT-LEDS processes in Namibia and Tanzania and on sectoral mitigation modelling in energy, transport and other priority sectors, as well as on the review of the technical aspects of proposals and project pipelines developed by key partner countries with

UNEP support.

UNFCCC guidance on long-term strategies, and will build on existing national models, inventories and datasets wherever possible.

The consultant will work with information and modelling inputs provided by project teams, national consultants and country counterparts, and will revise deliverables following consolidated feedback from

UNEP.

The expected results below correspond to the main stages of the workplan, together with performance indicators against which their achievement can be assessed.

Result 1: A consistent modelling methodology and workplan are established for the supported projects.

Activity 1.1: review of existing modelling work and framing o review the relevant PAF and NDC Act & Invest project documents, existing

LT-LEDS and NDC modelling work, GHG inventories, datasets, tools and timelines in Namibia, Tanzania and other supported countries;

o define a common scenario framework (base year, time horizon, reference and mitigation scenarios, macroeconomic and demographic drivers) and a quality-assurance approach for modelling outputs;

o identify gaps in the availability or quality of data and assumptions, and propose practical approaches to address them.

Activity 1.2: development of the modelling workplan o develop an eight-month modelling workplan aligned with project timelines, national consultation processes and donor reporting milestones;

o document, as agreed by UNEP, the division of modelling tasks between the consultant, national experts, project teams and country counterparts;

o maintain an up-to-date inventory of models, datasets, versions and assumptions used across the supported projects.

Expected deliverables: • 1.a.

Inception and modelling package, comprising methodology, workplan, inventory of models and data, scenario definitions, gap assessment and quality-assurance approach, as described in section 2.3. Result 2: Baseline and mitigation scenarios for the

LT-LEDS of Namibia and Tanzania are reviewed and documented.

Activity 2.1: baseline (reference) scenarios o compile and validate activity data, emission factors and socio-economic drivers, in coordination with national counterparts and consultants;

o review the consistency of baseline projections with national GHG inventories, NDC baselines and sectoral plans.

Activity 2.2: mitigation scenarios and long-term pathways o identify and parameterise mitigation measures and technologies in consultation with national counterparts, and model mitigation scenarios and long-term low-emission pathways;

o quantify emission reductions, mitigation potential and indicative costs, and assess consistency with NDC targets and long-term objectives;

o carry out sensitivity analyses on key assumptions and maintain a clear audit trail for all results.

Expected deliverables: • 2.a.

LT-LEDS of Namibia and Tanzania, comprising documented baseline and mitigation scenarios, emission projections, mitigation potential, indicative costs and sensitivity analyses, submitted according to the workplan.

Result 3: sectoral mitigation modelling in energy, transport and other priority sectors is conducted and documented.

Activity 3.1: energy and transport sector modelling o develop energy-sector modelling (power generation, energy demand, fuels and efficiency) and transport-sector modelling (demand, modal shift, vehicle fleets and fuel switching), including baseline and mitigation scenarios;

o quantify sectoral emission projections, mitigation potential and indicative costs, and prepare technical notes presenting methods, assumptions and results.

Demonstrated experience in quantitative climate mitigation modelling, including the development of reference and mitigation scenarios and long-term emission pathways.